Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
